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Jueves, 13 de Enero de 2022 21:41 | 
Author: Mouris Salloum George | 
| Edición 423 |
VOCES DEL DIRECTOR
Los errores se pagan caros
Mouris Salloum George
DEBEREMOS forzosamente hacer un esfuerzo mayúsculo para ajustarnos a cumplir con las cláusulas del tratado comercial que firmamos con Estados Unidos y Canadá, de lo contrario, estaremos siendo relegados a sufrir en carne propia en nuestros sectores exportadores. Lo que estarÃa reflejándose en el decrecimiento del empleo.
Sin embargo, para México las noticias no son nada alentadoras. Como usted sabe, el banco mundial J.P. Morgan, anunció que se retira de nuestro paÃs, derivando las operaciones menores en el funcionamiento del BBVA con los clientes que queden en el panorama.
Por si lo anterior fuera poco, las empresas extranjeras que han invertido en México la gigantesca cantidad de 200 mil millones de dólares, se dicen engañadas porque les cambiaron las reglas sobre las condiciones originales de producir energÃa eléctrica renovable, y ahora están dispuestas a acudir a los tribunales y cortes del exterior para reclamar las indemnizaciones correspondientes. Tienen las de ganar.
Si los apagones recientes en el territorio nacional habÃan significado un perjuicio económico superior al provocado por la cancelación del Aeropuerto de Texcoco, imagÃnese usted esta nueva andanada, una sangrÃa al erario por cantidades inimaginables. No tenemos para pagar las indemnizaciones correspondientes.
Un cálculo aproximado de las pérdidas que arrojarÃa esta situación que nos llegará, inexorablemente de sopetón, equivale a pérdidas multimillonarias en dólares que, según los más avezados analistas de la economÃa mexicana corresponderÃa a un decrecimiento de espanto.
Aseguran que si durante los años 2019 y 2020, el decrecimiento del producto nacional bruto (PNB) apuntó hacia menos 10 por ciento, lo que sà serÃa un golpe seco a los bolsillos y al empleo, nadie puede asegurar que podamos resistir un decrecimiento menor al 20 por ciento, que es hacia donde apuntan los recientes acontecimientos. SerÃa el caos.
Un decrecimiento de menos 20 por ciento del producto nacional bruto no hay quien lo aguante.
Triple golpe, si no es que más. El retiro de J.P. Morgan no es buen augurio porque maneja intereses de grandes inversionistas y éstos han transferido sus fondos al exterior. Mal augurio.
El segundo implica que los fondos salen de paÃs porque no ven condiciones óptimas de ganancia, a como habÃan estado acostumbrados en el pasado con otros gobiernos. La 4T es otra cosa.
Eso mismo revela que los mayores inversionistas del paÃs no tienen más compromiso que la ganancia y no el de contribuir al desarrollo nacional. La ganancia por la ganancia, nada más.
El último de los tres no es mejor. La salida del corporativo financiero, el banco más grande por activos en el vecino del norte, los Estados Unidos, y uno de los más poderosos de mundo, no es buen indicio para la economÃa estadounidense.
Dicha economÃa de paÃs vecino no anda con buenas señales en general, como la inflación que se está desbordando y pronto seguirá el anuncio del incremento de las tasas de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal.
Y la inflación impactará a los paÃses endeudados en dólares. México entre ellos.
Pero lo dicho, deberemos cuidar a nuestro sector exportador, porque implica el ingreso de dólares, al menos para apuntalar más nuestro peso y que la de-valuación no le pegue tan duro.
Lo menos, aprovechar la cercanÃa con Estados Unidos. Ya no tan lejos, como en los tiempos de Porfirio DÃaz. Para no pagar tan caros los errores. Veremos.
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